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Survivor: Nicaragua - Episode 13: "Not Sure Where I Stand"
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua - Episode 13: "Not Sure Where I Stand"
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chillfact0r7
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12/09/10 10:35 PM
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LoL I honestly feel like whatever happens the next 3 days will largely decide who wins. Everyone left has a legitimate chance to win (sans Dan, there's no way he can possibly win this- having no game plus only allies in Marty, Fabio and Benry is not the formula to win... 3 votes just will not be enough) but everyone also has their faults which makes these last few days probably the most pivotal endgame that I've seen on Survivor in some time. Usually there is someone who really stands out at this point as the winner but I'm not convinced by anyone's edit that they're going to win. But here how I break it down..
I honestly feel Jane and Holly, despite being in the majority right now, are the two long shots to make it to the finals for the pure fact that they're two likable older women who have pretty solid cases to plead to the jury. Jane has her husband and Holly has the fact she made the biggest turn around of anyone in this game during the first few weeks. I just don't buy that Sash is going to stay loyal to Jane so Holly has much better odds than Jane at going to the end, but I just don't honestly think anyone thinking strategically would take them to the end, especially over dead weight like Dan.
And to add to the whole Holly debate, I think she's easily proven herself as a strategist and she's been involved in a lot of strategic conversations. She may not have the best judge of character but Holly has constantly rebounded from situations that should have ended her. And yes Monique, despite what happened in the recap Holly was pushing Brenda to go like mad during her boot episode. And Jane is shown pushing Brenda to Chase and Fabio in the recap, not Holly. So I'm not sure where you made this up Monique- I literally just watched the recap too lol
Sash is easily the "mastermind" strategist, but the fact that he's screwed so many people over (and chances are will screw some more over before the end) could come back to haunt him. Russell Hantz, anyone? I don't think he's nearly as disrespectful but he's equally as sleazy so I think that combination could hurt him. I could see him possibly winning over Brenda and Marty, as well as NaOnka and Purple Kelly, but no one left in the game currently would vote for him to win as he's pretty much the leftover. Chase, Holly and Jane would vote for each other to win, and based on their commentary about Sash, I doubt Fabio or Dan would vote for him either (especially now that he's lied to them). Even though I think Sash did an amazing job of pulling himself out of the hole he was in this last episode (and if I was on the jury, I would vote for the guy despite being a douchebag), the fact that everyone basically thinks he's shady is both the thing that will help him go far but also the thing that will help him lose the game.
Chase is probably the most likable out of everyone left and is pretty much the only person who hasn't stepped on anyone's toes but at the same time he's made some pretty stupid decisions- such as joining the women's team that one RC they pretty much had no chance. However, the thing with Chase is he already has a guaranteed vote from NaOnka, another two in Purple Kelly and Brenda (although I see them leaning more towards Sash than Chase, especially Brenda), and then Jane and Holly in the event they get picked off. So perhaps his "big mistake" of siding with the women could turn out to be his biggest strategic move without him knowing considering most of them are on the jury and he has the sob story with his dad as the cherry on top. There's also potential for Benry to vote for him as well since they're friends, even though Chase did just screw him over. It's just depends on how bitter some of the jurors are and whether people still respect the fact Chase could make it to the end despite making some boneheaded plays. It's easy to forget how many times Chase has been a swing vote, but from the Shannon boot all the way up to Benry he's voted them all out, so it's hard to argue if he's really being hindered by his stupid decisions.
Fabio... honestly, I have no idea what could possibly happen with him. He hasn't gone out of his way to really piss anyone off, but this episode really showed how out of the loop he is- and how everyone is basically willing to get rid of him. I think if he manages to make it to the end, he'll definitely have Benry's vote. I see Alina voting for him despite the fact he wouldn't side with her at her last TC. Marty and Dan could also possibly swing a vote towards Fabio based on the fact he's stuck with them since the merge. There is no way in hell he would get votes from Brenda, Sash, Holly, Jane, Chase, Purple Kelly or NaOnka though unless something dramatic happened that made Fabio look like a star. Whereas people are going to call Chase out on the fact that his game moves have been questionable, Fabio is going to get called out because he hasn't made any moves himself in the first 32 days of the game. And personally I wouldn't vote for someone that waited until the final 6 to get off their ass and be proactive about their game. Fabio said it when he was talking to Benry- his game is just TOO easy and I don't think it will be respected.
So basically, I think it's really between Chase and Sash as to who is going to take this whole thing. I can't imagine Dan or Fabio getting the votes to win and I just don't think anyone would let Jane or Holly make it that far (but if Holly or Jane do make it to the end, I think they'd easily win the female vote). I think the fact that both Chase and Sash have played strong games without being labeled as jury threats is going to benefit both of them in the long run and in the event either of them is screwed over they both have the best shots at winning their way to the final TC as well. But then again, if we get another Amanda or Russell in front of the jury anything can happen really.
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