mds2929 wrote:
I think next week could be an awesome time to get rid of Sash too.


This was the week to get rid of Sash, but the one truly wise thing that he did the entire episode was reveal that he was playing the HII no matter what, which did a good job of truly forcing a wedge between the two alliances. When Sash won immunity, that locked up his spot in the F5, because (I believe) that next week is the last time to use a HII. Even if anyone tried anything, there's no way that Sash gives it away to anyone, so he's set.

I definitely don't think that Sash has the game in the bag, though. His arrogance was on full display, overtly at that, and there was honestly no real need for the two-way blindside he threw at the other alliance. If Sash burns more bridges in getting to a F3 against someone likable (Fabio, Holly, ~Jane), his strategic acumen might not mean much. We've been through enough seasons by now to know that winning by being liked or even less disliked than your opponent is a reasonable ending.

No spoilers here, just reading the editorial tea leaves (and not edgic - any system that says Mick was going to win Samoa is clearly broken), but I still think that there are three to four horses in this race. Dan is an also-ran, a prop, a piece of furniture, et al. As Harrison noted, though, he should be in the final 3. Whether these crazy people will be smart enough to let him coast there in the background as a do-nothing player, well, that's a matter for debate. I also can not see Jane winning. She absolutely reeks of being the "feel-good" story who comes up just short, has jury members claiming that she should have won, and then gets fan favorite. This despite, as we've seen and heard, that Jane is hardly a the cuddly, lovable, yet more savvy version of Jan Gentry that we've been force-fed.

I thought for a while that Chase had a legit chance to win, but then they absolutely dumped the moron edit on him right around Marty's boot. It hasn't stopped sense even though things keep coming up roses for Chase, like Survivor's Forrest Gump. I can see Chase reaching the F3 and absolutely getting shelled by the jury for being a moron. Sash, was 4th in my mind entering this week, and he's probably replaced Chase as one of the three legit contenders. If Sash could finagle a F3 against Chase and Dan, it wouldn't matter how many bridges he burns. However, as noted earlier, I have legit concerns that someone who is so openly cocky and believes that he will win the game. Look at the winners going back to Gabon - Bob, J.T., Natalie, and Sandra. None of the four ever really came across like an ass the way that Sash did this week and all four had many tiny moments of positivity, but not arrogance. Sash's entire experience has been about the game, control, and how much better he and his alliance are than everyone else. Just seems like a comeuppance waiting to happen.

My two main contenders remain Holly and Fabio, and if you'd said that two or three episodes in, it would have been ludicrous. I do think that Holly's received a more favorable edit than a player of her ilk might usually get, but she's made the F6 in a rather unlikable cast, so it's not that surprising. Holly has the growth edit, some big moves, and has been cited as being likable. I think that she would beat everyone else left if she makes the F3, a notion that seems even crazier than Holly. Then there's Fabio, nee Jud, who you could easily say has done nothing. However, we've heard a whole lot about Fabio's "make friends and stay chill" strategy, as well as glimpses that he's not nearly as dumb as he was depicted to be in the first few episodes, and if he finishes strong in the immunities, that could blow up all of the other F3 plans. I could easily see Fabio going on a run, making a key play, and win a vote against two other guys.

X to all this. Holly and Jud are really the only two logical winners remaining. Everyone else has flaws with how they've been portrayed. Then again, Bob and Natalie were both largely overlooked as contenders, so...who knows. But I agree that it'll be either Holly or Jud.
  

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